Chiefs Fall Behind Chargers in AFC West as Patriots Cruise in AFC East

As of November 17, 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs are in serious trouble in the AFC West, trailing the Los Angeles Chargers by two games with a 5-5 record — a far cry from their usual playoff dominance. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are cruising at 9-2, turning the AFC East into a one-horse race. The twist? The Denver Broncos are sitting pretty at 8-2, making the division a three-way scramble no one saw coming.

AFC West: The Rise, the Fall, and the Fight

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. The Chiefs, under Patrick Mahomes, have been the AFC’s anchor for nearly a decade. But this season, injuries to key defensive backs and a shaky offensive line have exposed cracks. Their 5-5 record isn’t just a blip — it’s a red flag. The Chargers, led by Justin Herbert, have quietly built momentum, winning five of their last six games. They’re not flashy, but they’re efficient. And they’re now two games ahead of Kansas City.

Then there’s Denver. The Broncos, once considered a rebuilding project, are suddenly atop the division. Their defense, anchored by rookie linebacker Quinn Ewers, has forced 14 turnovers in the last six weeks. They’re not just winning — they’re dominating. The Chiefs now face a brutal reality: to even reach the playoffs as a wild card, they’ll need to win nearly every remaining game — and hope both the Chargers and Broncos slip.

Patriots in Cruise Control

While Kansas City scrambles, New England is in full autopilot. At 9-2, the New England Patriots have the best record in the AFC. Their 14-21 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was their first defeat since Week 5 — and even that came with a strong second-half push. Quarterback Mac Jones has been steady, and rookie running back Devin Neal has emerged as a dual-threat weapon, racking up 785 total yards in November alone.

Buffalo, at 7-3, is the only team even close. But the gap is growing. Analysts are calling it “cruise control” — a phrase echoed by ESPN’s John Clayton on his weekly breakdown: “The Patriots aren’t just winning. They’re managing the season like a chess match. Every timeout, every challenge, every fourth-down decision feels intentional.”

The Bills still have a shot — but they’ve got to beat the Patriots in Week 15. And even then, New England’s strength of schedule is far easier. They’ve played the 13th-toughest slate in the league. Buffalo? They’ve faced the 5th-toughest.

The AFC North and the Wild Card Shuffle

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) are quietly becoming a dark horse. Their win over New England was their first against a top-5 team this season. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been the surprise of the year, throwing for 1,840 yards and 14 touchdowns since Week 7. They’re now tied with the Baltimore Ravens (5-5) for the final wild card spot.

But here’s the catch: the Steelers have the worst point differential in the AFC among teams above .500. They’ve won close games — too many of them. If they hit a rough patch, they could fall out of contention fast. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) are out of it. Their season is over.

NFC: Rams Lead, Bears Surprise

In the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams (8-2) are the class of the league. They’ve scored 272 points and allowed just 172 — the best differential in the conference. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been surgical, with a 68% completion rate and only 3 interceptions since Week 6.

But the real story? The Chicago Bears (7-3). After years of rebuilding, they’re leading the NFC North. Rookie quarterback Payton Turner has thrown for 2,100 yards and 16 TDs since Week 3. They’re not just competitive — they’re dangerous.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4) lead the NFC South, but their defense is crumbling. They’ve allowed 28+ points in four of their last five games. If they don’t fix it, they’ll be a first-round casualty.

What’s Next? The Final Five Weeks

The Chiefs’ path to the playoffs is narrow: win out, hope the Chargers lose two of their next five, and pray Denver slips. Their remaining schedule includes road games against the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers — both playoff-caliber teams. It’s not impossible. But it’s unlikely.

For the Patriots, it’s about rest and rotation. They’ve already clinched a first-round bye. Now, they’re playing for seeding — and avoiding a potential rematch with Buffalo in the divisional round.

The Chargers? They’re in the driver’s seat. But they’ve got a brutal stretch: home against the Cincinnati Bengals, then road games in Seattle and Las Vegas. One slip, and the Chiefs could surge back in.

Historical Context: When Did This Last Happen?

The last time the Chiefs were this far behind in the division after Week 11? 2017 — when they finished 10-6 and still won the Super Bowl. But that was a different era. Mahomes was a rookie. The defense was elite. This year’s team? They’re not the same.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are on pace to match their 2007 and 2016 seasons — both 12-4 campaigns that ended in Super Bowl appearances. They’re not just good. They’re methodical. And they’re not done yet.