The University of Houston Cougars are officially in the conversation for the College Football Playoff—but barely. Ranked No. 23 in the third set of 2025 rankings released on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, Bristol, Connecticut, the Cougars sit at 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the Big 12 Conference, just outside the projected 12-team field but very much alive. Their 34-27 win over Cincinnati on November 9 gave them breathing room after a shaky start to the season, and now, with two games left, they’re playing for more than just a bowl game—they’re playing for a shot at the national title.
Why This Matters for Houston
For a program that hasn’t cracked the top 10 since 2015, this is the closest they’ve come to playoff relevance in a decade. The Kevin Sumlin era—now in his second season at Houston after stints at Texas A&M and Arizona—has quietly turned the Cougars into a consistent winner. But consistency isn’t enough anymore. The CFP’s 12-team format, introduced in 2024, changed everything. Now, it’s not just about being good—it’s about being *ranked* high enough to survive the first round.
Right now, Houston trails five Big 12 teams in the rankings: Texas Tech (No. 5), BYU (No. 11), Utah (No. 12), Oklahoma (No. 8), and Texas (No. 17). But here’s the twist: the Cougars aren’t just fighting for a top-12 spot—they’re fighting to be the highest-ranked Group of Five team. That distinction matters. Under current CFP rules, the five highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids. If Tulane (No. 24) wins the American Athletic Conference title, they leapfrog Houston. But if Houston wins out and Tulane stumbles, the Cougars could become the first non-Power Five team to sneak into the playoff via at-large selection since 2021.
The Road Ahead: Two Games, One Chance
The schedule doesn’t get easier. Next up: a road trip to Lawrence, Kansas on Saturday, November 23, 2025, to face the Kansas Jayhawks (5-5). Kansas isn’t ranked, but they’re playing with house money after upsetting Oklahoma State and nearly beating Texas. Then, on Friday, November 29, 2025, Houston hosts the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium—a place where the Cougars haven’t won since 2012.
Win both, and Houston finishes 10-2. That’s the magic number. Teams with 10+ wins have made the playoff 87% of the time since 2014. But they’ll need help. Utah, BYU, and Texas Tech are all in the top 12, and their schedules are brutal. If Utah loses to Oklahoma State or BYU falls to Boise State, the door cracks open. And if Oklahoma, currently ranked No. 8, stumbles in their final two games? Houston’s resume suddenly looks a lot more appealing.
The Bigger Picture: Group of Five’s Last Shot
The last time a non-Power Five team made the CFP was Cincinnati in 2021. Since then, the committee has tightened its grip on at-large bids, favoring Power Five teams with stronger schedules. But this year might be different. The Big 12 is wide open. The ACC and Big Ten are both shaky. And the SEC? Only Ohio State and Georgia are truly untouchable.
Houston’s strength of schedule ranks 32nd nationally—not elite, but not terrible. Their wins over Cincinnati, UCF, and North Texas carry weight. Their losses? To Texas (ranked 17th) and Oklahoma State (ranked 21st). Both were competitive. The committee doesn’t just look at wins—they look at *how* you win. Houston’s offense, led by QB Jalen Milroe (2,840 yards, 22 TDs), is explosive. Their defense? It’s improved. They’ve held five of their last six opponents under 24 points.
“We’re not thinking about rankings,” said Sumlin after the Cincinnati game. “We’re thinking about what’s next.” That’s the right attitude. But make no mistake—this is Houston’s best shot at history. And it’s slipping away with every loss by a team ahead of them.
What’s Next? The Final Countdown
The next rankings drop on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, just two days after Houston’s game at Kansas. That’s when the committee will start to make decisions. If the Cougars beat Kansas and Oklahoma loses to TCU, Houston could jump into the top 20. If they win both games and two teams ahead of them lose, they could sneak into the top 12.
The final rankings—on Sunday, December 7, 2025—will be the last word. Conference championship games on December 6 will shake up the board. If Tulane wins the AAC, they’ll be in. If Houston wins the Big 12? They’re in. But Houston isn’t playing for the conference title—they’re playing for the last at-large spot.
And if they get it? The first-round matchup would likely be at No. 5 Texas Tech (if they hold on), with a potential quarterfinal against No. 4 Georgia. That’s a nightmare. But it’s also a dream.
Background: The CFP’s 12-Team Revolution
The College Football Playoff replaced the BCS in 2014, and for a decade, it was a four-team tournament. The expansion to 12 teams in 2024 was supposed to be fairer. It was. But it also created new tensions. The five automatic bids for conference champs mean Group of Five teams have to win their leagues to even have a shot. Houston didn’t win the Big 12—so they need to be the best of the rest.
Only two Group of Five teams have ever made the CFP: Cincinnati in 2021 and UCF in 2017 (under the old system). Both were undefeated. Houston isn’t undefeated. But they’re better than most of the teams ranked above them. And that’s the argument their supporters are making.
“This isn’t about prestige,” said ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit on Tuesday night. “It’s about performance. If Houston wins out, and they’re 10-2, and they’ve got wins over ranked teams, and the teams ahead of them lose—then they deserve it.”
Herbstreit didn’t say they’ll get it. But he didn’t say they won’t.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Houston still make the College Football Playoff?
Yes—but only if they win both remaining games against Kansas and Oklahoma, and at least two teams ranked above them (like Utah, BYU, or Oklahoma) lose before December 7. Houston would need to finish 10-2 and hope the committee views them as the strongest at-large candidate among non-champions. They’d be the first non-conference champion from outside the Power Five to make the playoff since 2021.
Why is Houston ranked ahead of Tulane despite having the same record?
Houston is ranked higher because they play in the Big 12, which the committee views as a stronger conference than the American Athletic Conference. The Cougars also have a head-to-head win over Cincinnati (ranked 22nd), while Tulane’s best win is over Navy (unranked). Strength of schedule and quality wins tip the scale in Houston’s favor, even though Tulane is the AAC champion.
What happens if Houston ties for the Big 12 title?
Houston can’t win the Big 12 outright—they trail Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU by two games. Even if they win out, they’d finish 5-4 in conference play. Only the conference champion gets an automatic bid. So Houston’s only path is an at-large selection, which requires beating the top-ranked non-champions and impressing the committee with their resume.
Who are Houston’s potential playoff opponents?
If Houston makes the playoff as the 12th seed, they’d likely face No. 5 Texas Tech in the first round. The winner would then play No. 4 Georgia in the quarterfinals. Other possible matchups include No. 6 Ole Miss or No. 8 Oklahoma if those teams fall. The quarterfinals are set for December 31, 2025, at the Cotton Bowl or Sugar Bowl.
How many Group of Five teams have made the CFP before?
Only two: UCF in 2017 (under the BCS system) and Cincinnati in 2021. Both were undefeated. Houston isn’t undefeated, but they’re the most viable non-champion Group of Five contender since then. Their 8-2 record and win over a ranked Cincinnati team make them the strongest candidate since the 12-team format began.
When will we know if Houston made the playoff?
The final rankings are announced on Sunday, December 7, 2025, at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, after all conference championship games have concluded. ESPN will broadcast the reveal live. If Houston is in the top 12, they’ll be playing for a national title. If not, they’ll head to the Cotton Bowl or Sugar Bowl as a top-15 team.
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