A $400 million pivot resets boxing’s calendar — and its power map
Saudi Arabia just pulled off another headline steal. Mexican star Canelo Alvarez has signed a four-fight deal with Riyadh Season worth an estimated $400 million, according to people close to the talks. His Excellency Turki Alalshikh, who chairs the country’s General Entertainment Authority, announced the agreement and teased a May debut in Riyadh, an even bigger fight in September, and two more bouts in 2026. Alvarez replied publicly with a simple message: “Let’s go brother.”
The move arrives after a chaotic stretch of mixed signals around boxing’s biggest draw. As recently as days ago, Alvarez was said to be closing on a cruiserweight spectacle against social media star Jake Paul for early May at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. That fight is now off. Faced with a richer, longer play — and guaranteed dates — Alvarez swerved, and with it, the sport’s near-term schedule snapped into a new shape.
Here’s the broad outline confirmed by Alalshikh and industry sources: a May 4, 2025 opener in Riyadh; a September 13, 2025 blockbuster in Las Vegas against Terence Crawford; and two more fights in Saudi Arabia in February and October of 2026. The May card will run Sunday morning locally to hit U.S. prime time on Saturday night, a timing trick Saudi organizers have used before to maximize American viewership.
For context, Saudi Arabia has bankrolled many of boxing’s biggest nights in the past two years, from heavyweight mega-events to cross-promotional shows that were once impossible to stage. The Alvarez signing isn’t just another big purse. It’s a statement of control: the biggest active box-office force is now locked into a Saudi-led calendar.
Financially, the math is simple: $400 million across four events averages $100 million per fight, which puts Alvarez at the top end of combat sports earnings. One viral calculation from Action Network even framed it as thousands of dollars per second if each bout goes the full 12 rounds. None of that includes upside from pay-per-view, site fees, or global broadcast rights still to be announced.
For Jake Paul, this slams a door that looked cracked open. The influencer-turned-fighter had been pushing for a blockbuster crossover bout and, according to multiple people familiar, was deeper into talks than many believed. But the Paul scenario always came with weight-class riddles and legacy blowback. Alvarez walking away from that circus will be cheered by purists who wanted real matchups with real stakes.
Crawford in September, a May tune-up in Riyadh, and what needs to be answered
The centerpiece here is the second fight: September 13, 2025 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Alvarez versus Terence Crawford. On paper, it’s the best vs. the best. Crawford is a three-division champion and a two-time undisputed king (at 140 and 147 pounds), widely rated the pound-for-pound No. 1. Alvarez is the undisputed champion at 168 pounds and the sport’s biggest revenue driver. The matchup was flirted with, briefly agreed, and then abandoned during earlier rounds of negotiations. Now it’s back, and locked to an NFL stadium on Mexican Independence Day weekend — Alvarez’s favorite stage.
There are still big questions. The first is weight. Alvarez holds all the belts at 168. Crawford built his dominance at 147 and has only recently tested higher divisions. If this is for Alvarez’s super middleweight titles, Crawford would be moving up into a weight class with naturally bigger men who rehydrate heavy. A catchweight could be discussed, as could rehydration clauses, but neither side has confirmed terms. Sanctioning bodies will also weigh in. With all four belts in play at 168, even a small contractual tweak becomes a major regulatory decision.
The second question is broadcast. Saudi-backed events have cut deals across different platforms. Some shows landed on DAZN, some on ESPN or Amazon pay-per-view after cross-promotional agreements. No U.S. broadcaster for this four-fight run has been named, and that matters for price point, marketing muscle, and how many casual fans the promotion can pull in for a stadium-sized event.
Then there’s the May 4, 2025 opener in Riyadh. The working plan is a tune-up to sharpen Alvarez for Crawford. Jermall Charlo is under consideration. So is Bruno Surace, an option that would surprise many U.S. fans. Charlo brings name value, but he’s been inconsistent with activity. Surace would be seen as a lower-risk, keep-busy fight. Either way, the selection will signal how hard Alvarez wants to push before September — and how much risk his team is willing to take ahead of the Crawford payday.
What about David Benavidez? That’s the elephant in the room. The former interim titleholder at 168 is the opponent many have yelled for, and he’s now flirting with light heavyweight. This four-fight schedule doesn’t rule Benavidez out for 2026, but it makes the path narrower in the short term. If Riyadh wants the biggest available fights, Benavidez remains near the top of that list, assuming timing and weight align.
All of this sits inside a larger shift. Alalshikh has turned Riyadh Season into a global sports brand by doing the hard stuff: forcing rival promoters to work together, stacking cards with names casual fans recognize, and writing checks that cut through politics. It has produced matchups that once died in boardrooms. Signing Alvarez extends that playbook to the sport’s most bankable star.
From a logistics angle, Saudi shows have become slick. Time-zone friendly start times for U.S. audiences, international undercards, and heavyweight production values are now trademarks. Expect the same in May: an early-morning ring walk in Riyadh that lands around traditional Saturday night viewing hours in the States. Expect heavy security, a VADA testing program if fighters agree, and a short window for choosing a May opponent if camp opens soon.
Legacy talk will follow Alvarez wherever he goes. His record (62-2-2, 39 KOs) and resume across multiple weight classes make him a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But the debates never stop. Some want him back at light heavyweight chasing Artur Beterbiev or Dmitry Bivol in a rematch. Others want the grudge match with Benavidez. Crawford is a different kind of test — a skill fight, not a size fight. If Alvarez wins clearly at 168 against an all-time technician coming up in weight, he’ll get credit, but the details (weight, clauses, belts) will shape how much.
Crawford’s stake is just as big. Beating a larger champion in Las Vegas, on a Mexican Independence Day weekend card, would put him in rare company. He’s already unified divisions twice, a feat almost no one has done. Add a win over Alvarez in a stadium fight and his case as a generational great gets louder. He’s also 30s-plus now, so timing matters. A long camp and a tune-up at a higher weight could help, but it will be tough to match Alvarez’s size and strength on fight night without smart contractual guardrails.
As for Jake Paul, this is a rough one. He loses a career-best payday and the legitimacy that comes with sharing a ring with Alvarez. Paul has built a profitable lane beating ex-MMA names and a handful of pros, and he’s a better boxer than his critics admit. But the Alvarez door was the one that could have changed how he’s viewed. With Alvarez gone to Riyadh, Paul will likely reset toward names in his weight neighborhood and the celebrity sphere where he’s most comfortable.
The venue choices tell their own story. Riyadh for the launch — a made-for-TV spectacle with the state’s production muscle on full display. Las Vegas for the Crawford fight — the sport’s traditional capital, now rented out by Saudi money for the weekend that Alvarez has made his own. Allegiant Stadium can be scaled for 50,000-plus in a fight configuration, and the secondary market will explode if the undercard stacks up with a second title fight or a heavyweight attraction.
Details still in the air: ticket on-sale timelines, U.S. and U.K. broadcast partners, undercard direction, glove and ring size (standard, but always negotiated), drug-testing framework, and whether the September fight will carry all four 168-pound belts officially. Expect a drip of announcements across the next few weeks if camp dates are already penciled in.
There’s also the business angle inside the business angle. Multi-fight deals buy time. They let promoters map storylines, tease future opponents, and keep a star in rhythm. For Alvarez, it means stability, guaranteed eight-figure nights, and the ability to steer a legacy arc on his timeline. For Saudi Arabia, it’s leverage. If you want Alvarez, you may have to go through Riyadh — literally and figuratively.
The ripple effects are immediate. Other A-sides will look at this structure and ask for longer, richer packages. Networks will chase co-licensing arrangements rather than exclusive deals that block big fights. And fighters circling Alvarez — Benavidez, Charlo brothers, even names at 175 — will start angling for those 2026 dates, because that’s where the money and attention are headed.
Where does it leave fans? With a clear map of two major nights and a strong chance of one true super fight. If the May opponent has pulse and the September terms make sense, this run could be the rare thing modern boxing struggles to deliver: a coherent, year-long story at the very top of the sport.
Key dates under the current plan:
- May 4, 2025 — Riyadh (opponent TBA, names in frame include Jermall Charlo and Bruno Surace)
- September 13, 2025 — Las Vegas, Allegiant Stadium (Terence Crawford)
- February 2026 — Riyadh (opponent TBA)
- October 2026 — Riyadh (opponent TBA)
One last note on scope: Alvarez has never fought outside North America as a pro. That changes in May. A new market, a new cadence, and a new set of expectations, all under Saudi Arabia’s lights. If the execution matches the ambition — and lately it has — the next 18 months will run through Riyadh and a stadium off the Las Vegas Strip.
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