The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a reality they haven’t faced in over a decade: missing the playoffs. Their 31-28 heartbreaker to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day Arrowhead Stadium didn’t just cost them a win—it shattered their momentum. At 6-6, the Chiefs now sit at No. 10 in the AFC, three spots out of the postseason. For a franchise that’s made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons, this isn’t just a setback. It’s a crisis.
One Game, One Shift in the Odds
Before Thursday’s game, the New York Times NFL playoff simulator gave the Chiefs a 62% chance to make the postseason. ESPN’s Football Power Index agreed. They were in the driver’s seat. But after Dak Prescott’s clutch fourth-quarter drive sealed the win for Dallas, everything flipped. The simulator dropped Kansas City’s odds to 49%—literally less than a coin flip. That’s the first time this season their chances have dipped below 50%. The Chiefs aren’t just falling behind. They’re falling out of the conversation.The AFC Playoff Maze
Right now, the AFC playoff picture looks like a tangled knot. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans both sit at 6-5, one game ahead of Kansas City. The Buffalo Bills are even farther ahead at 7-4. The Chiefs don’t just need to win—they need everyone else to lose. And even then, tiebreakers could still knock them out. The Chiefs lost the season series to Dallas. They’re already behind in head-to-head tiebreakers with both Houston and Pittsburgh. That means every win must be perfect. No room for error.What’s Left on the Schedule?
The Chiefs’ final five games aren’t just important—they’re existential. Their next test? A home date with the Houston Texans on December 7, 2025 Arrowhead Stadium at 8:20 p.m. ET. A win here could keep them alive. A loss? It might end their season. After that, they host the Los Angeles Chargers on December 14, travel to Tennessee Titans on December 21, then face the Denver Broncos on Christmas Day Arrowhead Stadium—a game that could vault them into the top eight if they win. The season finale against the Las Vegas Raiders on January 4, 2026, is a formality… unless they’re still fighting for their lives.According to the New York Times simulator, winning all five remaining games pushes their playoff probability to 96%. That’s not a guarantee—but it’s close. Lose one? It drops to 78%. Lose two? It’s over. Jackson Durham, host of the Chiefs Report by Chat Sports, put it bluntly: “You win out over these four games, it’s all over. You don’t have to think about much anymore.”
Why This Feels Different
This isn’t the 2022 Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes isn’t hurt. Travis Kelce is still elite. But the defense? It’s porous. The offensive line? Struggling. The coaching staff has made questionable calls in close games. And now, the pressure is suffocating. Fans who once took playoff berths for granted are now checking playoffstatus.com every hour. The Arrowhead Addict report captured it: “The 2025 season has been rough for the Kansas City Chiefs.”It’s not just about this year. It’s about legacy. A missed postseason would be the first since 2013. It would break the longest active streak in the NFL. It would signal the end of an era. And for a franchise that’s won two Super Bowls in the last six years, that’s unthinkable.
What’s Next?
The next three weeks will define the season. If the Chiefs beat Houston and Los Angeles, then win in Tennessee, they’ll enter Christmas Day with a 9-6 record and a real shot. But if they drop even one of those games? The playoffs vanish. The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers both play tough matchups on November 30. If either loses, the door cracks open. But the Chiefs can’t wait for help. They have to force it open themselves.It’s not just about winning. It’s about proving they’re still the Chiefs. The team that never quits. The team that finds a way. Right now, they’re running out of time. And every second counts.
Frequently Asked Questions
How bad is the Chiefs’ playoff situation right now?
The Chiefs’ playoff odds have fallen below 50% for the first time this season, per the New York Times simulator. They’re currently in 10th place in the AFC, three spots outside the cutoff. Even if they win their next game, they’ll still need multiple teams ahead of them to lose—and win all four remaining games themselves. One loss likely ends their streak.
What’s the easiest path to the playoffs for Kansas City?
Win all five remaining games. That pushes their playoff probability to 96%, according to the New York Times simulator. They must beat Houston, Los Angeles, Tennessee, Denver, and Las Vegas. Even then, they’ll need help—specifically, losses from Pittsburgh, Houston, or Buffalo. A 11-6 record isn’t guaranteed to make the playoffs, but it’s their best shot.
Could the Chiefs still make the playoffs with two losses?
Technically yes—but it’s extremely unlikely. If Kansas City loses two games, their playoff odds drop to 68% or lower. They’d need at least three teams ahead of them to collapse, including a loss from Buffalo (7-4) and both Houston and Pittsburgh (6-5) dropping key games. Tiebreakers would also work against them. The math is brutal.
Why is the December 25 game against Denver so important?
A win on Christmas Day would give the Chiefs a 96% playoff probability if they’ve won their previous three games. It’s their last home game and the final chance to control their destiny. A loss would likely eliminate them unless other teams suffer dramatic collapses. The emotional weight of playing on Christmas, combined with the stakes, makes it one of the most pivotal games in franchise history.
Has any team with a 6-6 record made the playoffs in recent years?
Yes—but rarely. In 2023, the Houston Texans made the playoffs at 9-8. In 2021, the Seattle Seahawks went 7-10 and still qualified as a wild card due to a weak division. But a 6-6 team hasn’t made the playoffs since 2018, and even then, it required a tiebreaker win. The AFC is deeper than ever in 2025, making a 6-6 record nearly impossible to survive.
What happens if the Chiefs miss the playoffs?
It would be the first missed postseason since 2013, ending an 11-year streak—the longest active in the NFL. It would spark major questions about coaching, roster construction, and whether the Mahomes-Kelce era is winding down. Front office changes, draft strategy, and free agency decisions could all shift dramatically. For fans, it would feel like the end of an era.
